$NBIS
High ConvictionInvestment Thesis
Nebius is Serenity's favorite Neocloud — the only one worth owning long-term. Built from Yandex's cloud infrastructure spin-off, Nebius has Avride (autonomous driving), Clickhouse (analytics DB), a strong AI cloud balance sheet, and partnerships with ORCL and MSFT that de-risk the platform. Called at ~$87, now returned 100%+. In a world where IREN and SLNH dilute shareholders into oblivion, Nebius is a compounder.
Catalysts
- Sum-of-parts: Avride + ClickHouse + AI Cloud balance sheet all undervalued
- Partnerships with Oracle and Microsoft validate infrastructure quality
- Balance sheet supports aggressive AI cloud capex scaling
- 100%+ return from ~$87 call price
Risks
- European HQ with regulatory complexity
- Competition from hyperscaler-owned clouds intensifies
- Neocloud sector has many failed predecessors (IREN, SLNH) creating negative sentiment
From the Feed (5 signals)
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return on 30 different stocks. $INTC +29.62%, $MRVL +40.95%, $TSM +4.72%, $COHR +18.9%, $RKLB +26.76%, $DRAM +12.29%, $AVBO +18.32%, $AMZN +9.17%, $ARM +36.6%, $NBIS +15.22%, $GOOGL +6.41%, $AMKR +32.25%, $HOOD +19.14%, $HIMS +42.53%, $SMTC +18.83%, $POWL +9.26%, $MSFT +11.44%...
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I've liked are up a lot in just two weeks. I focus a lot about the 'undiscovered' ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don't need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it's not new anymore. But the reason they're not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
How are there people still long on an F-tier Neocloud like $IREN. Amid a $6,000,000,000 dilution? When $NBIS is up there with $ORCL and $MSFT looking derisked?
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. My high conviction: 1. $SIVE - laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. 2. Shunsin - Foxconn's optical foundry at $1.5B MC vs LWLG. 3. Win Semi - foundry for Sivers + AVBO + SpaceX supply chains. 4. $MRVL - mini-Broadcomm. 5. $HPS.A - Transformers. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB that I'm very fond of.
Glad to see $NBIS finally return 100%+ since my original thesis post back at ~$87. I covered Nebius a ton late last year and at the start of this year. Focusing on sum of parts from Avride to Clickhouse to how their balance sheet help them scale up their AI Cloud. Was a little disappointed with timing, in terms of the massive drop in Dec/Jan. But glad to see the company keep on delivering as Nebius is my favorite Neocloud in the entire sector. I think we're witnessing the rise of the next hyperscaler.