$ARM
MediumInvestment Thesis
AI inference bottleneck is shifting back to CPUs — inference ratio moved from 1:8 (CPU:GPU) to 1:1. AWS Graviton, Google Axion, MSFT Cobalt — all ARM-based. $15B annual revenue target starting to look conservative. Called long when ARM was at lower levels; up 45%+ this month.
Catalysts
- CPU:GPU inference ratio shift from 1:8 to 1:1
- AWS Graviton, Google Axion, MSFT Cobalt — all ARM architecture
- AI models flowing to edge — lightweight inference on ARM chips
- Meta + OpenAI AGI CPU buyers
Risks
- RISC-V open standard poses long-term architecture risk
- Valuation premium leaves little margin for execution misses
From the Feed (3 signals)
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return on 30 different stocks. $INTC +29.62%, $MRVL +40.95%, $TSM +4.72%, $COHR +18.9%, $RKLB +26.76%, $DRAM +12.29%, $AVBO +18.32%, $AMZN +9.17%, $ARM +36.6%, $NBIS +15.22%, $GOOGL +6.41%, $AMKR +32.25%, $HOOD +19.14%, $HIMS +42.53%, $SMTC +18.83%, $POWL +9.26%, $MSFT +11.44%...
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. My high conviction: 1. $SIVE - laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. 2. Shunsin - Foxconn's optical foundry at $1.5B MC vs LWLG. 3. Win Semi - foundry for Sivers + AVBO + SpaceX supply chains. 4. $MRVL - mini-Broadcomm. 5. $HPS.A - Transformers. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB that I'm very fond of.
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. AI inference ratio from 1:8 (CPU:GPU) to 1:1. AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. $15B annual revenue target starting to look reasonable?