Neoclouds
Mass ProductionQuality Matters: NBIS vs. IREN
Diverging: NBIS Compounding, IREN Diluting
Thesis
Not all Neoclouds are equal. Nebius (NBIS) is Serenity's favorite — strong balance sheet, de-risked by Oracle and Microsoft partnerships, sum-of-parts including Avride and ClickHouse. Iris Energy (IREN) is the worst long in the sector: $6B ATM, record executive SBC, a community that fabricated a false Anthropic deal to pump the stock. The lesson: avoid neoclouds with massive dilution regardless of the narrative. Find the one that actually compounds.
Picks in this Sector (4 active, 2 rejected)
Nebius is Serenity's favorite Neocloud — the only one worth owning long-term. Built from Yandex's cloud infrastructure spin-off, Nebius has Avride (autonomous driving), Clickhouse (analytics DB), a strong AI cloud balance sheet, and partnerships with ORCL and MSFT that de-risk the platform. Called at ~$87, now returned 100%+. In a world where IREN and SLNH dilute shareholders into oblivion, Nebius is a compounder.
Reddit is a high-growth money printer that algorithms incorrectly bundle with AI-disrupted social media. Q1 2026: $663M revenue (+69% Y/Y), 91.5% gross margins, $204M GAAP net income. Still down 28% YTD after blowout earnings. Reddit's data licensing for AI training + growing ad platform creates durable FCF. Long from ~$140-148.
HIMS is a DTC health platform with 36%+ short interest despite NVO partnership, peptide arc expansion, multiple global acquisitions, and improving fundamentals in a friendlier macro climate. The short squeeze thesis is structural — short interest can only be so high before covering creates inherent buying pressure. Long around $28.
AI inference bottleneck is shifting back to CPUs — inference ratio moved from 1:8 (CPU:GPU) to 1:1. AWS Graviton, Google Axion, MSFT Cobalt — all ARM-based. $15B annual revenue target starting to look conservative. Called long when ARM was at lower levels; up 45%+ this month.