$SOI
LegendaryInvestment Thesis
Soitec's Photonics-SOI is deployed in 100% of next-generation AI data centers, per their own EVP. That single quote defines the thesis — this is a functional monopoly on the substrate layer required for silicon photonic chips (the foundational layer of CPO). When Serenity published the SOI thesis at ~$40, institutions were publishing analyst reports saying it was overvalued. One month later Morgan Stanley quietly picked up 6.5% of the float. Up 200%+ since the original thesis.
Photonics-SOI in 100% of next-gen AI DCs per Soitec EVP. Near-impossible to replicate at scale given 20+ years of SiPh process development.
Catalysts
- Morgan Stanley acquired 6.5% of float after thesis publication
- CPO adoption acceleration driven by NVDA, AMD, MRVL — all require SiPh substrates
- Goldman Sachs TAM report: optical networking 9× growth to $154B
- 100% of next-gen AI DCs use Photonics-SOI (per Soitec EVP)
- French regulators blocked attempted Chinese acquisition — supply chain security
Risks
- Already up 200%+, near-term upside more limited; still 50%+ possible
- New competing SOI substrate entrants if margins attract competition
- Geopolitical risk: France could restrict exports under semiconductor control rules
From the Feed (5 signals)
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. My YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse along the way: $AXTI - 'Pump and Dump', $AAOI - 'Pumping stock with no fundamentals', $SIVEF - 'Pump and Dump Meme Stock', $LITE - 'Photonics Bubble', $IQE - 'Just pumping low MC stocks', $AEHR - 'Stock with negative revenue growth', $EWY - 'Just from followers', $SOI - 'Pump and dump, no novel idea'. Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along?
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don't get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media.
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. My high conviction: 1. $SIVE - laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. 2. Shunsin - Foxconn's optical foundry at $1.5B MC vs LWLG. 3. Win Semi - foundry for Sivers + AVBO + SpaceX supply chains. 4. $MRVL - mini-Broadcomm. 5. $HPS.A - Transformers. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB that I'm very fond of.
This is what happens when you find a true monopoly. Did you listen anon? $SOI up +140% since my thesis 1M ago and +302% YTD. Just a friendly reminder: 'Soitec's Photonics-SOI products are deployed in 100% of next-generation AI data centers.' - EVP Soitec