$SIVE
/ $SIVEFLegendaryInvestment Thesis
Sivers is the bleeding-edge independent DFB/CW laser supplier for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — the next-generation photonic architecture being deployed by every major hyperscaler. While LITE and COHR are fully allocated to NVIDIA, Sivers has emerged as the Tier-1 laser source for AMD CPO (via GFS), Marvell Celestial, Jabil 1.6T LRO, Ayar, and likely Apple silicon photonics. At a ~$1.5B MC vs. LITE at $60B+, the valuation gap is extraordinary for what is essentially the same critical chokepoint in the laser supply chain. CHIPS Act funding and a pending NASDAQ listing unlock US institutional capital that fund mandates previously barred.
Only independent public DFB laser supplier designed into AMD CPO, Marvell Celestial, Jabil 1.6T, Ayar, Apple. Win Semi handles fab scaling.
Catalysts
- NASDAQ listing unlocks US institutional fund mandates
- Jabil 1.6T LRO volume ramp H2 2026 — confirmed laser source
- AMD CPO program via GlobalFoundries — two public laser suppliers: SIVE and LITE
- Marvell Celestial direct laser sourcing (post-POET NDA breach)
- Apple Watch silicon photonics volume ramp H2 2027 (~50M units/yr)
- Ayar raised $500M for volume production — SIVE is primary laser supplier
- Golden Dome / DoD exposure via YSS acquiring ALLSPACE (SIVE lead customer)
- CHIPS Act round 2 funding (CHIPS Act recipient for RTX, ERIC, BAE beamformers)
- O-Net ELS partnership — Asian hyperscaler exposure (Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance)
- Win Semi handles volume ramp — execution risk de-risked via established foundry
Risks
- Multi-sourcing risk — hyperscalers may split laser supply across multiple vendors
- Revenue remains in qualification stage; visible ramp only in H2 2026
- Swedish retail overhang — local media hit pieces cause periodic volatility
- LITE/COHR could free up allocation if NVDA demand plateaus
- Currency risk (SEK) for non-hedged positions
From the Feed (20 signals)
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI led the first. $AAOI, $JBL types benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (1.6T pluggable). $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are future gens (CPO). VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU are likely future gens (quantum dot). What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later.
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: SIVE → POET → MRVL → AMZN/MSFT/GOOGL. SIVE → JBL 1.6T → META/NVDA. SIVE → Ayar → AlChip/GUC → AMZN/AMD. SIVE → O-Net ELS → Asian hyperscalers (Tencent/Alibaba/ByteDance). SIVE → AAPL Silicon Photonics (50M units/yr). Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward.
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI.
Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). 'The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030'. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVBO.
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310). Here's my thought process: $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... mapping to AMD CPO, MRVL Celestial CPO, JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), POET.
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life. What matters is: finding rare gems / leaders in a niche field, having enough concentration for it to matter, having enough conviction to sit through volatility, letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others.
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don't get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media.
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I've liked are up a lot in just two weeks. I focus a lot about the 'undiscovered' ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don't need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it's not new anymore. But the reason they're not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.