$INTC
MediumInvestment Thesis
Intel serves two theses simultaneously: (1) CPU bottleneck — server CPUs up 10-20% since March, shortages 6-12 months. (2) US foundry sovereignty — Intel Foundry is the only large-scale Western alternative to TSM. Called at $35 PT from Bernstein; now $100. The CHIPS Act anchor role makes INTC politically protected.
Catalysts
- Server CPU shortages 6-12 months (Intel + AMD planning Q3 price hikes)
- CHIPS Act → federal subsidies for foundry expansion
- INTC acquired SiPh IP (used by Jabil for 1.6T LRO architecture)
- Intel Foundry = US national security asset
Risks
- Foundry losses burning cash; path to profitability unclear
- TSMC CoWoS advantage persists in leading-edge packaging
From the Feed (2 signals)
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return on 30 different stocks. $INTC +29.62%, $MRVL +40.95%, $TSM +4.72%, $COHR +18.9%, $RKLB +26.76%, $DRAM +12.29%, $AVBO +18.32%, $AMZN +9.17%, $ARM +36.6%, $NBIS +15.22%, $GOOGL +6.41%, $AMKR +32.25%, $HOOD +19.14%, $HIMS +42.53%, $SMTC +18.83%, $POWL +9.26%, $MSFT +11.44%...
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC. This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. For customers from mapping: TSM, NVDA, AAPL, AMAT, LRCX, ASML, INTC. And high probability AVBO, MediaTek, Samsung, MRVL, and others. If you're curious — they did mention EU too. For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing.