$AXTI

Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?

Genuinely thanks for nice comments. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. My YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse along the way: $AXTI - 'Pump and Dump', $AAOI - 'Pumping stock with no fundamentals', $SIVEF - 'Pump and Dump Meme Stock', $LITE - 'Photonics Bubble', $IQE - 'Just pumping low MC stocks', $AEHR - 'Stock with negative revenue growth', $EWY - 'Just from followers', $SOI - 'Pump and dump, no novel idea'. Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along?

It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI led the first. $AAOI, $JBL types benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (1.6T pluggable). $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are future gens (CPO). VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU are likely future gens (quantum dot). What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later.

Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI.

Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life. What matters is: finding rare gems / leaders in a niche field, having enough concentration for it to matter, having enough conviction to sit through volatility, letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others.

Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I've liked are up a lot in just two weeks. I focus a lot about the 'undiscovered' ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don't need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it's not new anymore. But the reason they're not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.

Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. My high conviction: 1. $SIVE - laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. 2. Shunsin - Foxconn's optical foundry at $1.5B MC vs LWLG. 3. Win Semi - foundry for Sivers + AVBO + SpaceX supply chains. 4. $MRVL - mini-Broadcomm. 5. $HPS.A - Transformers. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB that I'm very fond of.

Still think $AXTI was my most legendary thesis. Don't think this will get beat by anything, now that it's near ~$5.3B MC.

Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI. I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only 'InP Substrate' with Sumitomo. This is wrong. They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them. They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates: All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium). $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies for raw material. pBN Crucible chokepoints: $AXTI is another massive chokepoint (BoYu). InP substrates: $AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly.