$LPK
/ $LPKFFHigh ConvictionInvestment Thesis
LPKF holds a functional monopoly over Laser Induced Deep Etching (LIDE) — the key manufacturing process for glass core substrates, the next-generation advanced packaging substrate after organic. Glass core substrates are required for CPO architectures and advanced chiplet packaging. 80%+ of major global semiconductor players have selected LPKF equipment for process validation. Mass production inflection point: 2027. Volume orders H2 2026 — not included in any current analyst forecasts. Called as potential 10× at $362M MC.
LIDE monopoly. 80%+ of global semis chose LPKF. Clean balance sheet, no dilution overhang. Potential 10× from $362M MC.
Catalysts
- First production orders expected H2 2026 — not in any guidance projections
- 80%+ of major global semis selected LPKF for process validation
- Intel, Samsung, SKC Absolics, Corning, AGC, Schott all qualifying
- Glass core mass production 2027 — 11-12.5× FWD P/E today
- ONTO partnership (LIDE + metrology) de-risks commercialization
- CPO architectures require glass core for scale-up compute interconnect
Risks
- Transition from qualification to volume ramp not guaranteed
- 2027 mass production could slip — timing risk is real
- Customer could develop alternative LIDE process in-house (low probability)
- Legacy revenue drag from non-glass segments confusing European algorithms
From the Feed (4 signals)
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe, now CCP-owned) was a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. Its clients include NVDA, TSM, AVBO, and INTC. With enough American ownership on these companies: we prevent hidden CCP ownership/takeovers of Western supply chains.
European 'monopolies' like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it's there too… (Quantum / MBE). Then there's some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
People nonstop ask me about $LPKK / $LPK for my opinion. Yes, I mentioned they're like a chokepoint for glass core substrates for LIDE (laser induced deep etching) way back when. Biggest known partner is $ONTO. Market share: 'more than 80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment' for process validation. That probably includes Samsung, INTC, SKC (Absolics), Corning, AGC, Schott, Nippon Electric Glass. Personal FWD P/E: ~11-12.5x for 2027, ~7.8x for 2028.
Thoughts on LPKF Laser ($LPK / $LPKFF) earnings: Very nuanced. 'Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance'. Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise. 'First production orders expected this year'. Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026 — this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that.